Predictable surprises?

Here is an interesting concept which I read about in a comment in the blog of Bruce Schneier. I can think of many applications for the principle.

Why are we predisposed to wait for a major disaster before we start regulating? "Predictable Surprises" by Bazerman and Watkins, 2004, have a pretty good answer. They claim the following general characteristics of predictable surprises:

- Leaders know a problem exists -- and that the problem will not solve itself

- People recognize that the problem is worsening over time

- Fixing the problem will certainly cost money, while the reward is an avoided cost that is uncertain (but likely to be large)

- The up-front costs will be significant, but the benefits will be delayed

- And last, but not least, a small but vocal minority benefits from inaction and is motivated to lobby for its private gain

Consider the problem of global warming and go through the list. Would we be surprised if the Atlantic Conveyer stops and the temperature in Europe starts dropping?